Weekly Newsletter: November 11, 2024
“One (bottle?) bourbon, one scotch, and one beer.” That was before the Fed decision, which was momentous as well. The election put Trump back in the White House and for the first time since Grover Cleveland, a president will serve two non-consecutive terms. It has been nearly 200 years since the party in power failed to win consecutive elections over three elections. For its part, the markets, like the two prior elections, raced ahead, putting in the best week in two years. The expectations are for less regulation, lower corporate taxes, and more spending. Even though the Fed at their meeting cut rates, the still potentially higher deficits could keep rates higher for longer. The campaign rhetoric rarely translates directly to action once in the White House, as legislation still needs to get by Congress. The makeup of Congress could support Trump’s legislative measures, but it is by no means a guarantee. Down the street, the Fed meeting was less tumultuous as they all but declared victory over inflation. Worries persist about the strength of the labor market. The Fed will be tasked with balancing the likely higher deficits and strong employment growth. Maybe time for another round.
The past week was filled with the election results and Fed meeting. The coming week will turn back toward the economy and earnings wrap-up. The consumer and producer prices will be scrutinized for signs of a pickup in inflation. Commodity prices have been relatively flat over the past year, which has helped. However, demand remains strong for the “service” side of the economy and could keep inflation higher than expected. Retail sales will provide a look at the strength of the consumer. Sentiment readings have been generally positive, but will that translate to spending? Retail company earnings, due this week, may provide some additional answers. Comments from the companies about overall spending at the store level should provide a better picture of spending patterns as well.
Short-term yields rose on the week as investors expect higher deficits in the coming years if the campaign promises become reality. Other parts of the bond market were more sanguine. Highyield bonds rose in price as investors expect lower-quality companies to be better able to generate profits and borrow money in the years ahead. The difference between the yields on “junk” bonds and treasuries is at its most narrow since 2006, just ahead of the financial crisis. The lack of “spread” between the two expresses a high level of confidence in the economy and corporate America. That said, for the first time in six months, one of the bond models has flipped toward projecting higher rates. It is too early to declare any persistence to the change, but it is interesting to note.
In what was an “everything rally”, the week pushed the SP500 to within a hair of 6000. The week also marks the start of the seasonally best part of the year which begins in November and lasts into the second quarter of next year. The election cycle is also very strong for the year following a presidential election. That ebullient feeling could get tempered as the markets have rallied strongly for two years and are well ahead of the pace of earnings growth. The current quarter’s earnings for the SP500 should come in at about $200/share, putting the price of the SP500 at 30 times those earnings. Even using estimated earnings for 2025 (which typically get revised lower over time), the multiple on the market gets lowered to 25, still historically high levels. Does that mean stocks decline from here? Not necessarily. Valuations provide a decent estimate of future returns and are poor at “timing” any decline in stocks. At current valuations, returns over the next 5-7 years are expected to be below normal.
Fed chatter and inflation data will be watched closely this week.
The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.