Weekly Newsletter: November 18, 2024
“Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.” According to the markets, it is not All About Eve, but about Fed Chair Powell. His comment that inflation remains on a bumpy road to their 2% target was not what the markets wanted to hear, and they fell hard to close out the week. The strong retail sales figures, along with sticky inflation reports have Powell backing away from more confident comments that inflation was tracking toward the Fed’s target. The weekly jobless claims showed a still strong jobs market. Now with three-quarters of a percent cut to interest rates without an economic slowing and stuck inflation, investors are beginning to wonder if the Fed has made a policy mistake. This week housing is in focus, with data on various aspects of the housing market. Earnings season may have ended with the retailers last week, but the second largest stock in the SP500, Nvidia, reports this week and could provide direction for the tech sector. There will be plenty of Fed governors making comments this week as well, trying to better explain how the Fed is thinking about future rate cuts.
The rally following the election put stocks into the stratosphere of historical valuations. This week a bit of the euphoria came out as investors reassess inflation, the direction of interest rates, and what some of the proposed policy makers may mean for sectors of the market. As discussed above, the headline inflation data was in line with estimates, but the “core”, which excludes food and energy, remains high. Yes, food and energy prices have moderated some over the past few months and put downward pressure on inflation. The market did not react to the inflation data, but rather to the perception that Powell (and the Fed) may take a step back at their December meeting from rate cutting. There was a better than 60% chance the Fed would cut rates. After Powell finished, that dropped to near zero. The equity market has been fueled recently by a still strong economy and the perception that the Fed would keep cutting rates. With that off the table (at least for now), stocks fell back.
Interest rates, especially long-term yields, rose on the week. The combination of strong economic data and a Fed that may be on hold reversed the perception that a December cut is in the cards. Commodity prices have eased a bit and may lead to better inflation data in the months ahead. Bond yields, especially compared to the income generated by stocks, look very attractive today. There remains some risk though of still higher rates as investors assess both the risk of the Fed stopping their rate cut program and the political risks of higher deficits over the coming decade. Notorious for worrying, bond investors are not happy unless everyone else is feeling glum.
One market sector in focus (again) this week will be technology stocks, specifically semiconductors. Some have called the sector the new staple stocks that have to be bought and owned. They lead the market higher over the past three years but have cooled noticeably since July. Performing worse than the SP500 and even the equal-weighted SP500, their poor performance has allowed other parts of the market, like value and small stocks to take their turn in the sun. The earnings report from Nvidia this week could put another nail in the semi coffin or bring them back like the phoenix. Drug stocks have been taken to the woodshed as Trump’s pick for head of Health and Human Services (HHS), which oversees the Federal Drug Administration, has been a critic of drug companies. It highlights some of the risks to various parts of the market depending upon some of the cabinet picks and IF they get approved.
There have been plenty of “correction fakes” that have seen the markets decline for a week or so, only to surge back higher as investors “buy the dip”. The rapidly approaching holiday season tends to be positive for stocks, so little is certain about the direction for stocks.
The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.